26 Kasım 2022 Cumartesi

Dünya Kupası Notları & Polonya: 2 - Suudi Arabistan: 0

İlk maçlarında beklentilerin ters yönünde performans gösteren iki takımın maçıydı Polonya-Suudi Arabistan. İlk maçların en düşük kalitelilerinden biri olan Meksika-Polonya'nın daha kötü tarafı olmayı başaran Polonya ve tam tersine, ilk maçların en flaş skoruna Arjantin'i yenerek imza atan Suudi Arabistan. Oyun konusunda beklenti oluşturmak maç öncesinde pek mümkün değildi, özellikle Suudi Arabistan'ın yaptığı işin bir seferlik mahsus bir şey mi olduğu yoksa diğer maçlara da mı yansıyacağı soru işaretiydi. Bu sorunun cevabını aldık, Suudi Arabistan maçta sadece daha iyi oynayan taraf değildi, 0-60 arasında doğrudan oyunun temposunu kontrol eden, açık ara daha çok pozisyon bulan taraftı. Bir adım daha ileri gidip, oyunlarının Arjantin maçından daha iyi olduğunu dahi ileri sürmek mümkün. Bu sefer şansları yanlarında değildi, buldukları sayısız fırsatı gole çeviremediler, ek olarak 40. dakikada Al Dawsari'yle bir de penaltı kaçırdılar.

Her halükarda, Herve Renard'ın oluşturduğu takıma şapka çıkartmakta fayda var. Oyuncu grubunun tamamın lokal takımlarda oynaması ve kulüp çeşitliliğinin de sınırlı olmasını (ilk 11'de sadece 3 farklı takımdan oyuncu var) maksimum derecede kullanarak karşımıza belki de en kulüp takımına benzer takımını çıkardı Fransız hoca. Kulüp takımlarının milli takımlarının iskeletini oluşturması geleneği globalleşen futbol dünyası sebebiyle her geçen sene daha geriliyordu, bu açıdan güzel de bir nostalji yaşatıyor bize bu takım. 1. bölgede kaptıkları toplardan sonra hem uzun vurarak hem de paslarla çok hızlı çıkabilen, ceza sahası çevresinde ikili-üçlü bağlantıları kurabilen, hücum aksiyonlarında starları Al Dawsari'nin etrafında çok iyi konumlanabilen bir takım izledik. 60'tan sonra tempoları ciddi bir şekilde düştü, geride olmalarına rağmen oyunu çevirecek tempoyu kuramadılar. Bunu da iki maçtaki yüksek efora ve zayıf benchlerine bağlayabiliriz. Grup aşamasında elenseler dahi bu Dünya Kupası'nın renklerinden biri olarak hatırlanacakları aşikar.

Yazıda kazanan takımdan ilk iki paragraf boyunca bahsetmedik, belki bu durum Polonya'nın silik oyuna rağmen 2 maç sonrasında 4 puan alan ve şimdiye dek gol yemeyen tek takım olmasını da betimler. Orta sahadaki organizasyon eksikliklerini, arkadan atılan diagonal ve dikey uzun toplarla doğrudan ceza sahasına inmeyi amaçlayarak törpülemeye çalıştılar, bu plan bu maç özelinde çalıştı. Golü böyle buldular, aynı zamanda 63 ve 66'da Milik ve Lewandowski'nin direkten dönen pozisyonları da gol pozisyonunun neredeyse birebir kopyasıydı. Özellikle Renard-Suudi Arabistan örneğinin karşısında daha belli olan bir durum var ki, bu takım hoca dokunuşu arıyor kendini bulmak adına. Kadro kalitesi açısından kalburüstü olan bir takımın sahada bu kadar zayıf bir oyun ortaya koymasında en önemli faktör Michniewicz olsa gerek. Böylesine yapısal bir sorunu turnuva içerisinde nasıl çözebilirler meçhul. En azından Lewandowski'nin sonunda Dünya Kupası golünü atmış olması en büyük yıldızlarının üzerinden stresi atması ve daha moralli olması açısından olumlu bir haber. 

 

Dünya Kupası Notları & Tunus: 0 - Avustralya: 1

 


Grupta Fransa ve Danimarka'nın varlığı göz önünde bulundurulduğunda Tunus-Avustralya kağıt üzerinde D Grubu'nun üçüncüsünü tayin edecek bir maç gibi duruyordu turnuva öncesi. Nitekim, Tunus'un Danimarka'dan 1 puan alması, bu maçı kendileri adına bir nevi gruptan çıkma maçına dönüştürdü (elbette Danimarka'nın alacağı sonuçlar ve averaja bağlı olarak). Maçın özetini bir cümleyle şöyle yapmak mümkün: Avustralya ilk maç erken golü bulduğunda karşısında Fransa yerine başka bir takım olsaydı ne olurdu, bunu izledik. Avustralya, Fransa karşısında 9. dakikada Goodwin ile 1-0 öne geçmiş ancak Fransa buna çok kolay yanıt verip maçın kendileri adına sıkıntılı bir noktaya gitmesine müsaade etmemişti. Bu sefer Goodwin asisti yapan isim oldu, Duke çok şık bir kafa vuruşuyla Avustralya'yı 1-0 öne geçirdi 23. dakikada. 

Bu turnuvada 0-0'lık ilk devrelere oldukça alışkınız, maçların ilk golü genellikle geç geldi, şimdiye kadar 5 maçta hiç gelmedi. Bu maçta golün erken gelmesinin, özellikle gruptan çıkma şansını sürdürebilmek için galibiyete ihtiyaç duyan bir Tunus olduğunu düşündüğümüzde, çok daha fazla baskı kuran ve risk alan bir Tunus bir görmemize yol açabilirdi ama gidişat böyle olmadı. Tunus'un Danimarka karşısında belli noktalarda oyunun temposunu eline almasını sağlayan unsur geriden hızlı çıkışlar ile buldukları pozisyonlardı. Nitekim bu maçta da girdikleri pozisyonlara çoğunlukla bu şekilde girdiler. Ancak kapanan bir savunmaya karşı çözüm üretemedikleri çok net bir şekilde ortaya çıktı. Bunun en doğrudan örneği ikinci devrenin ilk 20 dakikası. 45-55 arası Avustralya topu Tunus'a verdi ve daha fazla kendi alanlarına bulunmalarına müsaade etti. 55-65 arası ise topu bu sefer olabildiğince ayağına alıp Tunus'u topsuz oyuna daha fazla mağdur bırakarak yormaya ve sinir seviyelerini yükseltmeyi amaçladı. Tunus'un bu iki yaklaşıma da vereceği bir cevap olmadı. 67'de Khazri'nin, 73'te ise Kechrida'nın oyuna girişi tempoyu bir miktar hareketlendirdi, bu değişikliklerin belki daha erken yapılabileceği sorusunu sordurdu bu durum. Yine de, maçın geri kalanında ciddi bir gol tehlikesi yaratamadı Tunus, özellikle son dakikalara doğru çok sayıda pozisyona girmesine rağmen.

Avustralya cephesinden baktığımızda ise golü bulduktan sonra oyuna oldukça pragmatik yaklaştıklarını söylemek mümkün. Sertlik seviyesi yüksek bir Tunus'a karşı skoru aldıktan ise akıllı oynayıp tempoyu oldukça düşürmeye çalıştılar. Bunu da sadece kapanmayıp, gerekli noktalarda topu da ayaklarına alıp kompozit bir stratejiyle yönettiler maçı. Bu noktada Avustralya adına sorulması gereken soru: 0-0'ı nasıl oynayacaklar? Bunu iki maçta da test edemedik. Bugünkü Fransa-Danimarka maçının sonucuna bağlı olarak son Danimarka maçlarında kendilerine beraberlik yetebilir gruptan çıkmak için. Danimarka'nın tehdit noktasında Fransa'ya mı yoksa Tunus'a mı daha yakın bir performans göstereceği belirleyici olacak. 

7 Ekim 2017 Cumartesi

Is Lonzo Ball the Right Fit For Lakers


2017 NBA Draft is now a few hours away. It is a known fact that this year’s edition will be much deeper than recent ones. The concept of ‘deepness’ is generally constructed on the quality of names that expected to selected on mid and late 1st round but draft’s main story lies on top 10 (all-star candidates) and even top 5 (superstar candidates). The Los Angeles Lakers, which will select in 2nd place, is naturally one of the best actors of this process and their choice will be the most exciting thing because ‘Fultz for 1st pick’ is now kind of guaranteed after Celtics – Sixers trade.

If you look the mock drafts, you are likely to encounter at least five different names for 2nd pick. Nevertheless, news that came from Lakers organization is a sign that they are limited their options. De’Aaron Fox is an extraordinary athlete and a solid defender but his offensive ceiling is pretty low. Jayson Tatum is a talented scorer but not the right choice for the system that Luke Walton is trying to establish and he has not even been called out to work-out by Lakers. Jonathan Isaac, Malik Monk and Lauri Markkanen are players who will bring different qualities to the court but it is doubtful that whether they are valuable enough for 2nd pick or not. All these factors left behind 2 alternatives for Lakers: Lonzo Ball and Josh Jackson. Until the night of June 20. Until the D’Angelo to Brooklyn trade. Despite the debate as to whether this trade was the right choice for the team, the dilemma in the draft selection came into a clear result. If any surprises don’t happen, Lakers will select the Lonzo Ball on June 22nd and yield up the playmaker position to a new name, after two seasons.

If you haven’t watched any UCLA games last season and heard Lonzo’s name for the first time along with his father –like me- it’s quite natural to get caught up in prejudice. It is true, with the BBB brand and his magazinish statements, LaVar Ball managed to create his own agenda and unfortunately Lonzo was dragged into that mess. Antipathy towards his father overshaded Lonzo’s basketball skills but if you enter the Youtube and watch a few videos of him, I can guarantee that you will forget all this drama quickly. Ball’s court vision, passing skills, shooting ability and unselfish game style is very impressive. Among these factors, the most valuable thing for me is the last one, because the most helpful factor in breaking the prejudice that I have created about him was that his game style that puts the team first. He has an incredible assist rate without dominating the offense and a pretty high shooting percentage without taking lots of shots. These combinations are both valuable in terms for efficiency and his fit with Luke Walton’s system –a system that targets maximum ball-player circulation and don’t want to be static-. Let’s give some stats to explain his efficient game. He finished last year with %18.1 usage rate and %67.3 true shooting and these numbers are ignored by public because of his unorthodox shooting style. When we compare him with this year’s prospects, results are as follows:


At that point, his constancy along with style and his pass-oriented game created the perception that ‘Ball is going to have problems on shooting’ but as you can see, he is even better than Fultz, who takes credit for shooting. %74 of his 3 point attempts and %52 of his around the rim attempts are created with a pass and that also shows that he contributes to scoring without occupying the ball too much.

One of the main reasons of him considered as a star candidate is his ability to push the pace in transition. He is taller than an average PG and with the help of that he can crash the board and observe the floor better. Although he is not effective as Westbrook in grab&go’s but he does a pretty good job in making the right choices on high tempo and rewarding players who have done the right runs and cuts, %34 of his assists came in transitions. It would not be wrong to say that Ball will be in a team that he can use this skill when we assume that Lakers’ young core won’t have problems on fastbreaks.

He also has some tools that can be used in half-court offense. He finds the shooters in off-screens, he can create positions to his teammates coming out of drive&kick’s and in addition to those, he has an effective off-ball game and uses back-cut’s that end with an easy lay-up or alley-oop many times. His isolations are getting criticized a lot but he has 1.21 PPP on iso’s, which is fairly good. He is at 98th percentile in off-dribbling scoring and his %73 in around the rim finishes is not that bad at all.

Ball’s most serious weakness on the offensive side is his pick&roll game and it is not easy to create a counter argument against that. His %32 turnover rate on pick&roll’s is very high and his court vision in pick&roll’s is not as good as in transitions. When opponents switch P&R’s, it can hardly be said that he turns that into an advantage. To defend that Ball is not that unproductive in pick&roll’s, we have to take the UCLA’s playbook as victim. According to the stats, UCLA’s main mentality was to create positions to other players rather than ball-handler’s shot attempt. When taking UCLA’s bigs that can knock down 3’s into account, it is not possible to judge that. As a result of that, Lonzo has 0.86 PPP and %74 pass rate in P&R’s and after his arrival in LA, my hope that this partial problem could be compensated was greatly diminished after D’Angelo was sent. The only way out at the moment is that Walton needs to run more early offense actions that relies on off-ball movement rather than standard pick&roll’s.

Lonzo Ball's offensive choice distribution
On the defensive side, it's possible to compare Lonzo's style to Brandon Ingram. His body can be considered as weak on the NBA level, so he uses his length and athleticism to create a threat to opponent’s passing channels and he establishes his main defensive activity on help-defense positions. Even though he is not inadequate in 1 on 1 defense, it is not hard to guess that he will be defeated by elite scorers.

Lonzo Ball has skills that can turn himself into an elite player, as well as the deficiencies that can hurt him in the long run. Now, it is time to ask the crucial question, as we know that his next stop will be Lakers, is Lonzo Ball the right for Lakers? This question can be answered in two ways: before D’Angelo and after D’Angelo. If DAR had been stayed on the team, Lonzo’s pick&roll problems would not have been a big deal because he would be playing along with a good P&R runner. Luke Walton has ran pick&roll sets a little over the league average last season, an unexpected situation for those who think that Walton would copy the system in the GSW to the Lakers. It is uncertain whether this is a conscious choice or a necessity arising from the fact that it is not an experienced roster that can play early offense in high efficiency. Next season, it will be a necessity for him to give up on pick&roll.


One thing is for sure, Lakers showed that they are confident in Lonzo because instead of distributing responsibilities into rotation, they left all the burden on his shoulders. Upcoming seasons will show us that whether he can meet the expectations or not.

*References for stats:

NBA.com/stats
Basketball-reference.com
NBAMath.com

-Translated from the original Turkish article that published on June 22, 2017.

28 Eylül 2017 Perşembe

NBA Off-Season 2017 | Three Moves That Fell Off the Radar


We're experiencing a very high-paced NBA off-season. It is not easy to remember an off-season with such major moves since 2010, which gained its popularity years before and exported a super team like Miami Heat. NBA is now dominated by the Golden State Warriors and it is reasonable to expect that other 29 teams' frame of mind will shift from 'How can we be a better team?' to 'Can we beat Warriors?'. Although defeating the Warriors isn't an easy task to do, many teams have made significant moves in this 2-month period. Houston Rockets brought CP3 next to Harden and created the most exciting backcourt of the league. Oklahoma City Thunder added Paul George after a profitable trade. Boston made an unprecedented move and acquired Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward in one summer. Minnesota Timberwolves finally made the transition from ‘promising team’ to contender by adding Jimmy Butler to their roster.

These moves, as expected, occupied the headlines of NBA news, both because of the size of the names and directly related to the top of the league. There are many breakdown analyzes, articles, podcasts which cover them. However, there were another important moves in this off-season. Some trades and free-agent acquisitions were off the radar this off-season but could easily push the top of ‘most important moves’ list if it happened in recent years. Here are three of them:

Denver Nuggets – Paul Millsap:

February 12, 2017 means a lot for Denver Nuggets. In addition to acquiring the Mason Plumlee and 2nd round pick in exchange for Jusuf Nurkic, they also won Nikola Jokic that day. Confusion and bad role distribution are seen as big problems for a team. Jokic-Nurkic duo were inefficient together and this issue were harming both players and Denver. After the trade, Nurkic found his rhythm in Portland and Jokic showed a superstar-level performance. At the beginning of last season, it was possible to talk about two questions for Denver: ‘Who will be the player that team will be built around?’ and ‘How the defense will improve?’. First question seems to be solved with Jokic’s rise and second question’s answer could be Paul Millsap.

For Denver, there is a clear offense-defense imbalance and it can be shown clearly with numbers. Nuggets comes 4th in offensive rating after Warriors; Cavs and Rockets with 113.9 but in defensive rating, they are 29th with 113.43. This is unacceptable for a team which expected to be in the race for playoffs in Western Conference and to solve it, Millsap’s help will be crucial. His combination of athleticism and power and ability to defend multiple positions, which will provide significant flexibility to the defense of Denver, is likely to increase the team’s dynamism. Millsap listed 14th in Defensive RPM among all players in the league with 3.35 and a quick note, his partner was Dwight Howard a.k.a the guy who finished basketball in his head roughly 4 years ago. It should be underlined that Howard-Jokic transition will be so much valuable for him and in that way, he can contribute to team’s overall game.

Having set a certain offense standard around the Murray-Harris-Jokic trio, Denver has the potential to go one step further with Millsap's involvement. He can score on iso’s, is a very effective roll-man in pick&roll’s (6th in ppp last season), has 3-point weapon (although his stability is debatable) and in addition to those, the biggest plus that he is going to bring to Denver will be his passing ability. Jokic is on a different level in terms of center passing and now with Millsap, one of the best PF’s in the league in terms of court vision, will create a effective inside-outside balance. Nowadays, spacing is a necessity in basketball and Denver has a frontcourt duo who can contribute to this factor.

Sacramento Kings – George Hill:

George Hill had a successful season with Utah Jazz last season and had many clients in this off-season. Rather than Spurs, Nuggets and Lakers; Hill’s next destination will be Sacramento Kings. It can be argued that whether the 3 years-57 MD contract made Hill overpaid or not and whether Kings need Hill or not. However; when it comes to Kings, problems don’t remain as little details, they reach into structural level. At least, it used to be. Since the Cousins trade, Kings has been making right moves and evaluating the Hill addition along with long term goals of Vivek-Divac duo would be reasonable.

Cousins-Kings relationship did not promise anything in the long run for the two sides, and it was very important for Kings to get rid of this burden and look ahead, even though the assets that they got in exchange for him was insufficient. This summer, the Kings made it possible to get rid of the perception of ‘dead team’ and enter the list to be followed. Let’s look at the incomers-outgoing list. Outgoings are Rudy Gay, Langston Galloway, Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison and Anthony Tolliver. Incomers are George Hill, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter, De’Aaron Fox and Bogdan Bogdanovic. If you consider Buddy Hield as a new player also, there is not a second team in NBA to make such a big progress in terms of depth compared to the beginning of last season. It is impossible to know that if it would be a more accurate choice in the long run to pursue an comprehensive tanking like the one that 76’ers did but Kings’ roster can now offer us something.



So, what is George Hill’s role in this team? Briefly; leading the team with being the only good ball distributor and playing a mentor role for young players –especially De’Aaron Fox-. His turnover and usage rates are comparatively low and his responsibility will be big in terms of keeping the Kings in order. It is also likely that he will contribute to team’s defense, his defensive RPM numbers can be considered as proofs. In addition to all these, the table above shows how underrated George Hill is in terms of offensive efficiency. The only question mark for Hill will be injuries, which caused him not playing at all 82 games in any season.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Los Angeles Lakers:

Lakers turned all its focus into the summer of 2018. The plan is offering max contracts to LeBron James and Paul George by clearing the salary cap, and everyone in the NBA knows that. For current roster, there is no untouchable name except Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, D’Angelo’s Brooklyn trade is a proof of that. This season’s aim will be concentrated on Lonzo and Ingram’s development and while doing that, they will try to establish a solid core before LeBron or George’s (maybe both?) possible arrival. Before looking at what can Kentavious Caldwell-Pope do in Lakers, it should be remembered that his contract lasts just for one year. What it means that, in the upcoming off-season KCP will either go to another team or settle down for a contract less than 18 million dollar for a year with the Lakers. Whether the Magic – Pelinka duo will offer a new contract to KCP in 2018 summer will depend on the performance that he is going to show this year.



KCP seems to fill a significant gap in SG, a position where Lakers struggles since Kobe’s prime. With the departure of Lou Williams and Nick Young and Jordan Clarkson’s inability to show a solid performance as a starter (and his numbers substantially go up with the bench unit), participation of KCP will be valuable for the team in the short run. It is a fact that the Lakers acquired the most reliable name in the market to consign SG position but as a matter of fact, pros&cons of his game seems to balance each other. Keeping good aspects of his game in front and hiding bad ones will depend entirely on Luke Walton’s preferences and line-up choices. He is both a good finisher and passer in pick&roll, at this point he can integrate along Lonzo very well and can compensate D’Angelo’s absence in pick&roll positions. Despite playing in a relatively low-tempo like Detroit (22th in pace last season) he is quite effective in transition, which can be valuable in Walton’s system. His court vision is pretty good and that can also be added to pluses list. When we look at the negative sides of his game, shot selection needs to be written first. Inefficency of mid-range shots is now proven by mathematics but he takes this type of uses frequently by coming out in pick&roll’s and hand-off’s. It is possible to link this to Detroit’s system and offensive sets but still, it is obvious that his efficiency lowers when it comes to decision making. In addition to that, his shot percentage around the rim is quite low (0.94 ppp – 14th percentile).

There is also a dilemma about KCP’s defensive performance. From the limited Detroit games I have seen in my past seasons, I regarded him as a very aggressive key defender. However, articles that I read and numbers that I look after Lakers acquisition didn’t support this argument of mine. He completed the last season with -1.31 Defensive RPM and couldn’t reach the 40th percentile in either driving D, isolation D or off screen D. Although there are numerous "defensive highlights" videos of him on Youtube, it is hard to say that you can link this performance with stability. This is also creates a question mark for Lakers, who finished the ’16-‘17 last in terms of defensive rating and needs urgent help at that side of the game. The issue of whether KCP can turn his potential into efficiency will be the key for both Lakers’ season and his own career.

*References for stats:

NBA.com/stats
Basketball-reference.com
NBAMath.com

-Translated from the original Turkish article that published on September 1, 2017.


9 Haziran 2017 Cuma

Referendum Expectations (Based On June 7 Results)



April 16 referendum is on the line and it is possible to read a lot of articles or listen a lot of talks on it. Yes, the number of contents which focus on this upcoming referendum is very high but this doesn't necessarily means ''quantity=quality''. The campaign of ''Yes'' side is filled with lies and populism, both sides have very limited arguments and worthless discussions. When we add up all those things, a process that is hard to tolerate emerges.

If you don't want to deal with those stuff and just want to make a prediction, then only place that you can look up is polls. But polls have recently lost prestige all over the world with the wrong predictions on Brexit and Trump. In particular, the circumstances on polls here in Turkey are even worse. It is a fact that pollsters are not independent and announcing manipulative predictions without even conducting surveys. What it means that, there is no difference between one survey company's ''%58 Yes'' prediction and a regular citizen's saying, ''I think the results end up with %58 No''.

Well, is there anything left to make a prediction? Seems like previous election results are the last and only option. Unchangeable numbers. No ground for speculations. But in this case, following question rises up: does the previous election results present a helpful data for a referendum projection? Answer would be ''No'' for many countries but in Turkey, things are quite different. Political process only works through parties. There are huge limits and restrictions on non-governmental organizations and unions, which actually should be completely independent. Most importantly, most of the citizens that are going to cast their votes, don't have the ability to think freely. With taking all these factors into account, positions of parties will be decisive on this referendum, therefore looking at the previous election results does no harm.

Now, let's start to think about 16 April...The ones who claim that ''No'' is going to win are defending themselves with following arguments: ''I have many friends who voted for AKP in previous elections and they are now saying that they will vote for 'No' '', ''Bahceli has lost his ground in MHP'', ''Saadet is in the No side, so the supporters of National Front will follow them''. I don't know whether they are truly believe these arguments or just console themselves. If their base for these assumptions is the right-wing voters around them, there is a big delusion. It is no different than thinking that protecting the ballot boxes in Cankaya or Kadikoy contributes to the preservation of country's total ballot votes. Furthermore, the ones who defend that claim are actually saying that right-wing voters will be determinative without even realizing it.

What I am saying is that, it is not very wise to make predictions by saying ''If we add up 3 points from here, 5 points from there'' kind of stuff. For a healthier foresight, right thing to do is dividing up the map into pieces. Most beneficial part of doing this is that we will be able to make a rational assumption for tendencies of MHP supporters. If the opposition block of MHP have influence on party's grassroots, a sum of shift is expected from ''Yes'' -which is the position of party rule- to ''No''. The amount of this shift will probably determine the result of referendum.

Estimates on MHP supporters' tendency doomed to be unhealthy as long as they are country-spread. For example, does the prediction of ''%70 of grassroots will vote for 'No' '' take into consideration of the difference between Central Anatolia and coastline? Doubtful. It is much more possible to expect that the supporters of MHP who live in coastline will go for ''No'' but in contrast to that the ones in Central Anatolia will possibly stick with party's official position, Yes. It doesn't anything to do with the current fight between Bahceli and contrarians. The main driving factor for MHP's grassroots in insider regions, which are more likely to vote for AKP as a second option, will be the discussion of ''Who is on the side of Yes or No?'', not the constitutional amendment package. Therefore Erdogan and AKP's approach to keep coming back to this comparison is not a coincidence.

All these things considered, first heavy blow for the ''No'' front arose when we analyze the map by dividing it into pieces. In the rest of the article, I will try to stay optimistic -as a person who is a supporter of No and will vote for No- and use the results of June 7, rather than November 1 as previous data. In the possible estimations of Yes-No, I will always calculate the No with its upper limit. Nevertheless, my final prediction will be a little bit disappointing. Let's get started.



The graphs above show the cities with +100.000 vote for MHP in June 7. With a optimistic and rough estimate, if we take Ankara and Istanbul with %50-50, coastline with %34-66 No and inside regions with %80-%20 Yes, we get 2.403.860 No votes from these 23 cities for June 7. For remaining cities, by splitting the vote share with %60-40 Yes, we get 1.008.994 additional No votes.

For other parties, dividing up to regions method is not necessary. Apart from capitols like Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, cities that they can get vote are very restricted for CHP and HDP and also their supporters' stance in this referendum is quite clear. In AKP, there may be a group that decides to stay out of Erdogan consolidation but its weight is probably low. If we take the vote share among AKP supporters as %90-10 Yes, then we get 1.886.471 No votes from AKP. This number is quite high but as I said before, I'm trying to stay optimistic, therefore I'm moving on. Let's take ''No'' percentages for CHP and HDP, %97 and %93, respectively. If we count on Saadet's position in ''No'' front, total share of No in ''others'' becomes %70. If we take the turnout in foreign votes as %50 (there are rumours that it is high) and share as %50-50, total figures are as follows:



These figures create the following graph, %48.9 Yes - %51.1 No.



Even though we establish maybe the most desirable scenario for No, maximum percentage that we can reach is %51. With a more reasonable perspective, Yes votes rise up to %52-53. We have 2 million new voters since November 1, but these voters will probably split with a direct proportion to parties' vote share, therefore it won't effect the Yes-No balance. The only way for the ''No'' front to survive is an increase in turnout, which was %84  in June 7 and %85 in November 1 and hope that this extra participation will mostly help their side.

I'm not trying to present a disaster scenario here. If ''No'' wins in April 16, it won't be ''stating the obvious'', as a matter of fact, it will be a huge victory for opposing front. That's what I'm trying to tell.

We hope that this country's citizens will not pull the pin of their own lives. What a country.






8 Nisan 2017 Cumartesi

7 Haziran Sonuçları Üzerinden Referandum Tahminleri

16 Nisan üzerine birçok yazı okumak, birçok tartışma dinlemek mümkün. Referandumla ilgili içerik sayısının bu kadar fazla olması kaliteyi de her zaman yanında getirmiyor elbette. Evet cephesinin komple yalan ve popülizm üzerine kurduğu kampanya, iki cephe için de geçerli olan sınırlı argümanlar ve içi boş konuşmalarla birleşince tahammül etmesi zor bir süreç ortaya çıkıyor.

Bütün bunlardan uzaklaşıp sadece çıkacak sonuç üzerine bir öngörü oluşturmak isteyenlerin başvurduğu adres olan anketler ise sadece Türkiye'de değil dünya genelinde tokat üzerine tokat yedi geçtiğimiz 1-2 yılda. Brexit ve Trump, anket şirketlerinin güvenilirliğini tartışmaya açtı. Türkiye'de ise durum daha vahim. Çoğu şirketin bağımsız olmadığı ve muhtemelen sahaya dahi inmeden manipülatif sonuçlar yayınladığı bir gerçek. Rastgele bir anket şirketinin '%58 evet çıkacak' demesiyle bir vatandaşın kendi küçük çevresinden yola çıkarak %58 hayır çıkacağını iddia etmesi arasında fark yok yani.

Peki bir tahmin yapmak için elimizde ne kaldı? Elbette geçmiş sonuçlar. Değiştirilemez, spekülasyonlardan uzak birebir rakamlar. Bir referandum projeksiyonu için genel seçim sonuçları ne kadar sağlıklı bir ön veri sağlar? Belki çoğu ülke için tutarsız olması mümkün ama Türkiye gibi siyasi yaşamın sadece partiler üzerinden yürüdüğü; sivil toplum kuruluşları ve sendikaların politik sürecin özgür ve aktif bir parçası olması gerekirken iktidar tarafından yaşam alanlarının daraltıldığı ve bundan önemlisi çoğunluğunu bağımsız düşünme yetisinden uzak vatandaşların oluşturduğu bir ülkede partilerin oy miktarları ve açıkladıkları referandum kararları belirleyici olacaktır elbette.

16 Nisan'a gelecek olursak...Hayır çıkacağını savunan isimler tahminlerinin detayını açıklamaları istendiğinde ''AKP'li olan çok tanıdığım var hepsi hayır diyecekmiş'', ''MHP'de Bahçeli'yi dinleyen yok'', ''Saadet hayır diyor, milli görüşçüler onları takip eder'' gibi cümleler sarf ediyorlar. Belki bunlara gerçekten inanıyorlar, belki de kendilerini avutuyorlar, bilemiyorum. Eğer kendi çevrelerindeki sağ seçmenden yola çıkarak çıkarım yapıyorlarsa bu biraz Çankaya'da ya da Kadıköy'de sandıkların başında bekleyip ülke genelindeki oyların korunmasına katkı yaptığını düşünme yanılgısına benziyor. Yine bu cümleleri sarf edenler aslında farkında olarak ya da olmadan belirleyici etkenin sağ seçmen olacağını belirtmiş oluyorlar.

Demem o ki, Türkiye geneli sonuçları ele alıp ''3 puan oradan gelse, 5 puan şuradan gelse'' diyerek tahmin yapmak pek mantıklı değil. Haritayı illere göre parçalayarak incelemek daha tutarlı bir öngörünün kapısını açacaktır. Bu parçalamanın yararı ise bu referandum özelinde MHP seçmeninin genel tutumunu öngörmekte karşımıza çıkacak. Eğer muhalif kanat, taban üzerinde bir ağırlık oluşturabildiyse partinin resmi tutumu olan evetten bir miktar hayıra kayma olacak. Bu kaymanın miktarı da muhtemelen referandumun sonucunu belirleyecek.

MHP'lilerin kararı üzerine yapılan tahminler ''Türkiye geneli'' olduğu sürece tıkanmaya mahkum. Örneğin, 'tabanın %70'si hayır' diyor tahmini; İç Anadolu - kıyılar arasındaki seçmen ağırlığı ve eğilimi farkını içeriyor mu, şüpheli. Kıyılardaki MHP'lilerin hayıra yönelmesi daha muhtemelken, iç bölgelerdeki seçmenden bir kopuş beklemek biraz hayalcilik. Bu durumun partideki Bahçeli - muhalifler kavgasıyla da alakası yok, iç bölgelerdeki AKP'yle geçişkenliği daima yüksek (bkz. 7 Haziran - 1 Kasım) tabanın oy verirken ana gerekçesi anayasa değişikliği paketindeki maddeler değil ''kimler evet diyor, kimler hayır diyor'' olacak. Erdoğan ve AKP'nin de kampanya boyunca bu söylemi ön planda tutması tesadüf değil.

Bu faktörler göz önüne alındığında hayıra inen ilk darbe MHP illere göre parçalanıp incelendiğinde ortaya çıkıyor. Hayır çıkmasını isteyen ve hayır oyu kullanacak biri olarak optimist davranacağım ve bundan sonraki kısımda geçmiş veri olarak 1 Kasım'ı değil, 7 Haziran'ı alacağım. Ortalama evet-hayır tahminlerinde de daima hayırı üst limitten hesaplamaya çalışacağım. Bütün bunlara rağmen en sonda elde edilen rakam ise biraz hayal kırıklığı olacak. Başlayalım.


Yukarıdaki grafikler MHP'nin 7 Haziran'da 100.000'in üzerinde oy aldığı şehirleri gösteriyor. Hayır için iyimser bir kaba hesapla İstanbul ve Ankara'yı %50-%50, kıyıları %34-%66 hayır, iç bölgeleri %80-%20 evet olarak aldığımızda 7 Haziran için bu 23 ilden toplam 2.403.860 hayır oyu geliyor. Geri kalan 58 ildeki oyları da %60-%40 evet olarak dağıtınca da oradan gelen hayır oyu 1.008.094.

Diğer partilerde ise illere göre parçalama metoduna pek gerek yok. CHP ve HDP'nin büyük şehirler hariç oy aldığı yerler zaten sınırlı ve seçmenlerinin duruşu da genel olarak net. AKP'de ise Erdoğan konsolidasyonun dışında kalmayı tercih edecek belli bir grup olsa da ağırlığı muhtemelen düşük. AKP'deki dağılımın %90-%10 olacağını varsaydığımızda 7 Haziran'daki rakamlara göre 1.886.471 AKP'li hayırcı oluyor. Oldukça yüksek bir miktar ve pek de inandırıcı değil. Nitekim iyimseriz ve hayır çıkmasını istiyoruz. O yüzden devam. CHP ve HDP'nin hayır oranlarını da sırasıyla %97 ve %93 alalım. Saadet'in hayır demesine güvenirsek (bana bi' gülme geldi) diğer oylarında hayır %70 civarında oluyor. Yurt dışındaki katılımı %50 (yüksek olduğu yönünde haberler geliyor), oranları da 50-50 olarak aldığımızda karşımıza çıkan tablo şu:


Bu miktarlar toplamda aşağıdaki grafiği oluşturuyor. Yani %48.9 evet - %51.1 hayır.


Hayır için olabilecek en güzel senaryoları kurduğumuzda dahi çıkan oran %51. Daha rasyonel bir bakış açısıyla düşününce evetin oranı %52-53 civarına çıkıyor. Seçmen sayısı 1 Kasım'a oranla 2 milyon artmış ama bu miktar partilerin mevcut oy oranlarıyla orantılı dağılacağı için muhtemelen evet-hayır dengesini bozmayacak. Hayırın ayakta kalması için tek yol 7 Haziran'da %84, 1 Kasım'da %85 olan katılım oranının artması ve bu ekstra katılımın da çoğunlukla hayır odaklı olması.

Burada ''hajum evet çıkacak yeaa'' goygoyu yapmaya çalışmıyorum. Eğer 16 Nisan'da hayır çıkarsa bu bazılarının düşündüğü gibi malumun ilanı olmayacak aksine muhalif cephe için çok büyük bir başarı olacak. Anlatmaya çalıştığım şey bu.

İnsanların kendi yaşamlarının pimini çekmeyeceklerine inanıyoruz, daha doğrusu inanmak istiyoruz. Öyle de bi' ülke işte.

1 Ekim 2016 Cumartesi

Lakers SL 2016 || Analysis Based on Performances of Players


Last 3 seasons of Los Angeles Lakers will not remembered with decent memories.  The process which started with Chris Paul trade veto continued with dissapointing performance of Nash - Howard duo and reached to top with Kobe's injury. After the 2010 championship Lakers had many ups&downs and after this injury they found themselves in an unstoppable fall. The team transformed into a circus leaded by people like Nick Young, Carlos Boozer, Jeremy Lin, Byron Scott. To portray the hugeness of chaos; telling that they finished last in west conference in last 2 seasons isn't enough. Too many unpleasant accident happened on on-court and off-court.

While all those things were happening, draft picks quietly waited to convert to new players. Some authors claim that Mitch Kupchak made this situation even worse with his self-will to do stronger rebuilding. At first, I wasn't convinced with this idea. There were tons of moves that could be done, tons of steps that could be take. But time made them right and me wrong. Right now, Lakers have a young core which contains high-potential players, last year's most requested head-coach and large cap space. The bitter side of rebuilding has come to an end - at least we think so for now- and there are lots of reasons to look to future hopefully.

In this article, we are going to take a look at the players who are in this young core and participated in Summer League. It's a fact that performances and numbers in SL always can be illusive. We have to remember SL level is not comparable with real NBA's level. But meantime we have enough data to make to form a judgment.

Brandon Ingram



5 games - 12.2 ppg - 4.2 rpg - 1.8 apg - %44 FG - %25 3pt

Ingram is the most future-expected player on this core certainly. His ability to score and amazing wing span made it difficult to put him behind Simmons in mock drafts for experts. In fact, by the day of 23 June, the number of mock drafts which predict Ingram as top pick aren’t few. Also it was not a secret that Lakers wanted him more than Simmons and with Sixers' pick, they got what they wanted.

The game graphics showed by Ingram in Duke upgraded the expectation level. And it's understandable. But we have to ignore these expectations while we are analysing his SL performance. Ingram couldn’t pass 25 points limit in any game and couldn’t control the game as well. But he showed a little piece of talent which we will see very often in years to come.

Let’s start with offense. Everybody knows that he has a great scoring ability. He has an impressive first-step which can lower its opponent guard. He is able to draw foul any time with his extraordinary length. And in addition to all, he can use both hands. Long before he took a step to NBA, he faced with many comprasions with Durant. But in my opinion, his stance on court is familiar with Carmelo. Of course a weaker and more athletic Carmelo. His effective performance on 1-on-1 is the reason why he reminded me Carmelo, probably. Furthermore, his style on back turned plays reminded me Nowitzki. On offense, the most positive note is that he knows the difference between taking the control of game and ‘let the game come to you’ situation. To be honest, he is more grown about that rather than D’Angelo Russell. Even when he couldn’t make the shots that he supposed to make, he took the step back and didn’t strike an attitude which might hurt his team. Just because Russell and rest of the team couldn’t do their job on feeding him, he had to create his own shot. Nevertheless, he didn’t do anything to lower the offensive tempo and made the right cuts to right spots. Of course, we have to keep in mind that these were the first games that Russell and Ingram played together. So there is no reason not to improve their communication between them. Thus, it will be very vital for Lakers.

Just because he is doing fine everything on penetration – pass – shoot triangle, he is putting a lot of pressure on defense. But sometimes, when he dived into 3-second area he made wrong calls. He was a little bit insistent and worse than Simmons about finding the open guys around 3-point line. His turnovers mostly caused by his headiness on isolation. When he got double teamed, he had a hard  time to make the right decision. Of course, while we are talking about all these stuff, we have to keep in mind that he is just 19 and under the guidance of right coach he can improve his skills.

The thing that attracts my attention on defensive side is that he frequently tried to balance his lack of strong body with his length. In this way, he was able to make blocks and steals –like Anthony Davis- on positions which found himself in as is disadvantage. Of course, on power subject, he is limited because of his current body but unfortunately that’s not the only problem. His neglect on defense caused many easy opponent points. At least, he is not bad as Harden. He avodided body contact with his match-up and by doing that he gave countless opportunities to his match-up on cut and offensive rebound.

D'Angelo Russell


4 games - 21.8 ppg - 4.0 apg - 6.2 rpg - %47 FG - %40 3pt

We have to separate D’Angelo’s career to two different periods: Before and after Byron Scott. Scott and current status of team caused very bad rookie season for a 2nd pick. D’Angelo has been effected very badly by Kupchak’s evil plan. After the picture they have faced, followers of Lakers had two main different ideas about him: claiming that he is a bust and needs to have a second chance after Scott. Even though he has not played a single game with Luke Walton, the positive effects of post-Scott period has started to come the surface in SL. And put a smile on the followers’ –who supported the second idea about him- face.

Above all, we witnessed that he was far beyond the level of SL. His 1 year of experience –don’t care if it’s good or bad- put him on a utterly different level. We saw that he was becoming the leader of the team, and tried this with talking with his teammates, not just with his own game. We saw that he wants to become a player like CP3, not Rose, and understood that he couldn’t do what he wanted to under Scott – Kobe duo, and gave him credit.

We know that D’Angelo is a pick&roll PG. He can read the floor well, be flexible whether the defence is doing double-team or switch. To improve his skills on that, team did a great job and tried many versions of p&r. On this point, there is a good note and a bad note. The good one; seems like after the bigs’ screen he is getting used to make the body contact with his match-up and force him to leave behind.

Like this:




The bad one; sometimes he is forcing the hoop too much even though he has enough gap to pass or shoot. It’s one of the most important reasons of why he has a %19.5 turnover rate. And the other reason is his passing judgment. He sometimes doesn’t scared to try the hard way. On regular season, I predict that he will be more conscious on these issues.

He controls the tempo very good on transition plays and early offense. These two will be very important on the new Lakers system. When the team starts the fast-break with Nance or Ingram, he doesn’t want the ball on his hands all the time and make the right cuts to right spots which is a good detail. The other topic that we have to focus on is post-up game. His post-up game is getting better day by day. In SL games, he presented us a couple of nice sequences on low-post. The number of PG’s who has a post-up weapon on his offense is not many. In an interview he also said that he wants to dominate this area.

On the defensive side, +’s and –‘s are pretty much balanced for D’Angelo. Generally, we can say his on-ball defense is more efficient than his off-ball defense. When he guards the off-ball player, he allows too many cuts and offensive rebounds, like Ingram. But when he guards the ball-handler, he adjusts the level of pressure very good.

Larry Nance Jr.


4 games - 9.0 ppg - 7.8 rpg - 2.8 spg - 1.8 bpg

Everyone failed on predicting Larry Nance’s future-projection. While he was getting drafted with 27th pick last year, nobody thought that he will be a great rotation player. After a solid rookie season, he carried over his efficient performance to the SL. He became a player who can do a little bit of everything. A player like every GM wants to see in his team. After the busts like Ryan Kelly, it’s very meaningful to have a dependable 4-5 back-up.

Lakers’ offense options deepened with Ingram addition. That’s why expectations mostly centered on defensive side for Nance and he has got a lot of weapons on defense. His style on that side of game is very compulsive for his match-up. He can reach out everywhere he wants, thanks to his athleticism. For example, he did a great job on defending Simmons in Sixers game, in fact at the end of the game his numbers on stats sheet were 4 blocks and 7 steals. He met the expectations with his pick&roll defense and rim protection.

His game style is familiar with Faried and if he wants to step up to next level, he needs to do one thing faultless on offense. That can be shooting as he showed some signals on SL. He played with 5/9 on pick&pop based mid-range shoots. He showed that he can make 3’s when he gets the opportunity. He had these threats last year but needed to improve. It’s nice to see that he’s making process, %66.7 true shooting is the quantitative evidence.

The other thing that makes him valuable on offense is his ability to play pick&roll efficiently. He screens strongly and act cleverly on direction and timing. We have to add that he can run the floor after getting defensive rebound, like Draymond Green. Of course, he can’t read the game as Draymond can, but with Walton’s system this skill of him will come into question.

Ivica Zubac


5 games - 10.6 ppg - 7.2 rpg - 2.6 bpg - %64 FG

And let’s get to the Zubac who surprises everyone in SL, not just Lakers. Saying that he is a steal before we look at his performance on regular season will be completely wrong. But among the 2nd round picks of this year’s draft, he is one of the biggest steal candidate. The injury which he suffered last year caused him to fell down to 2nd round of 2016 draft. If it wouldn’t happen, there are rumours claiming that GM’s would have picked him on 1st round. In fact, Brian Shaw said that they put Zubac to 16th place on their draft board.

So, what was the reason of hearing his name so much, all summer long? Let’s start with numbers. He played with 2.6 blocks per game which made him 2nd in SL. Also his average on points per possession was 1.2 and that number made him the leader of this stat among this year’s 2nd rounders. All those are impressive but they are not enough to describe what Zubac can/can’t do.

First of all, when he is on the floor he becomes the most important actor in 3-second area. Especially; when he founds his rhythm, he can make 3-second area a ‘no fly zone’ or can score 3 positions in a row with his efficient low-post game. Other than these, he locates very well on floor. He gets easy bucket chances with his right cuts in transition and his right location in 3-second area ables him to improve his block stats. He is trying to balance his slow footwork with smart steps. He has a special motivation on offensive rebounds obviously, %40 of his rebounds were offensive.

With showing all these attributes, Zubac made himself more playing time. But as a result of that, we saw his defects more during this time. Although he is a great threat on 3-second area with his length advantage, in some sequences he didn’t use this advantage and lifted down his arms too much and that caused foul-problem. The other issue of his game is his weakness of his left hand. This weakness makes him predictable while he was at the low-post and at the mean time limits his efficiency on defense. His slow footwork causes problems on transition and against centers who have 3 point threat. He needs to improve efficiency on pick&roll, when he puts a screen, he can’t adjust the dosage of power and sometimes that causes offensive foul. When he rolls, he can’t accord with ball-handler. If he wants to add another weapon to his hook shot, he needs to work on his mid-range shoot. He is at the particular level on that issue but extremely unstable and his range is very limited.

When we consider Mozgov addition and the possibility of other players’ getting playing time on 5, his chance of getting the jersey on regular season is uncertain. His playing time will depend on whether Walton will give Nance and Randle minutes on 5 or not. I would like to give a chance to him to see if he can repeats his performance in SL.


(There might be multiple vocabulary/grammar mistakes in the text. Sorry for that already.)