Is Lonzo Ball the Right Fit For Lakers

2017 NBA Draft is now a few hours away. It is a known fact that this year’s edition will be much deeper than recent ones. The concept of ‘deepness’ is generally constructed on the quality of names that expected to selected on mid and late 1^st round but draft’s main story lies on top 10 (all-star candidates) and even top 5 (superstar candidates). The Los Angeles Lakers, which will select in 2^nd place, is naturally one of the best actors of this process and their choice will be the most exciting thing because ‘Fultz for 1^st pick’ is now kind of guaranteed after Celtics – Sixers trade.

If you look the mock drafts, you are likely to encounter at least five different names for 2^nd pick. Nevertheless, news that came from Lakers organization is a sign that they are limited their options. De’Aaron Fox is an extraordinary athlete and a solid defender but his offensive ceiling is pretty low. Jayson Tatum is a talented scorer but not the right choice for the system that Luke Walton is trying to establish and he has not even been called out to work-out by Lakers. Jonathan Isaac, Malik Monk and Lauri Markkanen are players who will bring different qualities to the court but it is doubtful that whether they are valuable enough for 2^nd pick or not. All these factors left behind 2 alternatives for Lakers: Lonzo Ball and Josh Jackson. Until the night of June 20. Until the D’Angelo to Brooklyn trade. Despite the debate as to whether this trade was the right choice for the team, the dilemma in the draft selection came into a clear result. If any surprises don’t happen, Lakers will select the Lonzo Ball on June 22^nd and yield up the playmaker position to a new name, after two seasons.

If you haven’t watched any UCLA games last season and heard Lonzo’s name for the first time along with his father –like me- it’s quite natural to get caught up in prejudice. It is true, with the BBB brand and his magazinish statements, LaVar Ball managed to create his own agenda and unfortunately Lonzo was dragged into that mess. Antipathy towards his father overshaded Lonzo’s basketball skills but if you enter the Youtube and watch a few videos of him, I can guarantee that you will forget all this drama quickly. Ball’s court vision, passing skills, shooting ability and unselfish game style is very impressive. Among these factors, the most valuable thing for me is the last one, because the most helpful factor in breaking the prejudice that I have created about him was that his game style that puts the team first. He has an incredible assist rate without dominating the offense and a pretty high shooting percentage without taking lots of shots. These combinations are both valuable in terms for efficiency and his fit with Luke Walton’s system –a system that targets maximum ball-player circulation and don’t want to be static-. Let’s give some stats to explain his efficient game. He finished last year with %18.1 usage rate and %67.3 true shooting and these numbers are ignored by public because of his unorthodox shooting style. When we compare him with this year’s prospects, results are as follows:

At that point, his constancy along with style and his pass-oriented game created the perception that ‘Ball is going to have problems on shooting’ but as you can see, he is even better than Fultz, who takes credit for shooting. %74 of his 3 point attempts and %52 of his around the rim attempts are created with a pass and that also shows that he contributes to scoring without occupying the ball too much.

One of the main reasons of him considered as a star candidate is his ability to push the pace in transition. He is taller than an average PG and with the help of that he can crash the board and observe the floor better. Although he is not effective as Westbrook in grab&go’s but he does a pretty good job in making the right choices on high tempo and rewarding players who have done the right runs and cuts, %34 of his assists came in transitions. It would not be wrong to say that Ball will be in a team that he can use this skill when we assume that Lakers’ young core won’t have problems on fastbreaks.

He also has some tools that can be used in half-court offense. He finds the shooters in off-screens, he can create positions to his teammates coming out of drive&kick’s and in addition to those, he has an effective off-ball game and uses back-cut’s that end with an easy lay-up or alley-oop many times. His isolations are getting criticized a lot but he has 1.21 PPP on iso’s, which is fairly good. He is at 98^th percentile in off-dribbling scoring and his %73 in around the rim finishes is not that bad at all.

Ball’s most serious weakness on the offensive side is his pick&roll game and it is not easy to create a counter argument against that. His %32 turnover rate on pick&roll’s is very high and his court vision in pick&roll’s is not as good as in transitions. When opponents switch P&R’s, it can hardly be said that he turns that into an advantage. To defend that Ball is not that unproductive in pick&roll’s, we have to take the UCLA’s playbook as victim. According to the stats, UCLA’s main mentality was to create positions to other players rather than ball-handler’s shot attempt. When taking UCLA’s bigs that can knock down 3’s into account, it is not possible to judge that. As a result of that, Lonzo has 0.86 PPP and %74 pass rate in P&R’s and after his arrival in LA, my hope that this partial problem could be compensated was greatly diminished after D’Angelo was sent. The only way out at the moment is that Walton needs to run more early offense actions that relies on off-ball movement rather than standard pick&roll’s.

Lonzo Ball's offensive choice distribution

On the defensive side, it's possible to compare Lonzo's style to Brandon Ingram. His body can be considered as weak on the NBA level, so he uses his length and athleticism to create a threat to opponent’s passing channels and he establishes his main defensive activity on help-defense positions. Even though he is not inadequate in 1 on 1 defense, it is not hard to guess that he will be defeated by elite scorers.

Lonzo Ball has skills that can turn himself into an elite player, as well as the deficiencies that can hurt him in the long run. Now, it is time to ask the crucial question, as we know that his next stop will be Lakers, is Lonzo Ball the right for Lakers? This question can be answered in two ways: before D’Angelo and after D’Angelo. If DAR had been stayed on the team, Lonzo’s pick&roll problems would not have been a big deal because he would be playing along with a good P&R runner. Luke Walton has ran pick&roll sets a little over the league average last season, an unexpected situation for those who think that Walton would copy the system in the GSW to the Lakers. It is uncertain whether this is a conscious choice or a necessity arising from the fact that it is not an experienced roster that can play early offense in high efficiency. Next season, it will be a necessity for him to give up on pick&roll.

One thing is for sure, Lakers showed that they are confident in Lonzo because instead of distributing responsibilities into rotation, they left all the burden on his shoulders. Upcoming seasons will show us that whether he can meet the expectations or not.

*References for stats:

NBA.com/stats
Basketball-reference.com
NBAMath.com

-Translated from the original Turkish article that published on June 22, 2017.

NBA Off-Season 2017 | Three Moves That Fell Off the Radar

We're experiencing a very high-paced NBA off-season. It is not easy to remember an off-season with such major moves since 2010, which gained its popularity years before and exported a super team like Miami Heat. NBA is now dominated by the Golden State Warriors and it is reasonable to expect that other 29 teams' frame of mind will shift from 'How can we be a better team?' to 'Can we beat Warriors?'. Although defeating the Warriors isn't an easy task to do, many teams have made significant moves in this 2-month period. Houston Rockets brought CP3 next to Harden and created the most exciting backcourt of the league. Oklahoma City Thunder added Paul George after a profitable trade. Boston made an unprecedented move and acquired Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward in one summer. Minnesota Timberwolves finally made the transition from ‘promising team’ to contender by adding Jimmy Butler to their roster.

These moves, as expected, occupied the headlines of NBA news, both because of the size of the names and directly related to the top of the league. There are many breakdown analyzes, articles, podcasts which cover them. However, there were another important moves in this off-season. Some trades and free-agent acquisitions were off the radar this off-season but could easily push the top of ‘most important moves’ list if it happened in recent years. Here are three of them:

Denver Nuggets – Paul Millsap:

February 12, 2017 means a lot for Denver Nuggets. In addition to acquiring the Mason Plumlee and 2nd round pick in exchange for Jusuf Nurkic, they also won Nikola Jokic that day. Confusion and bad role distribution are seen as big problems for a team. Jokic-Nurkic duo were inefficient together and this issue were harming both players and Denver. After the trade, Nurkic found his rhythm in Portland and Jokic showed a superstar-level performance. At the beginning of last season, it was possible to talk about two questions for Denver: ‘Who will be the player that team will be built around?’ and ‘How the defense will improve?’. First question seems to be solved with Jokic’s rise and second question’s answer could be Paul Millsap.

For Denver, there is a clear offense-defense imbalance and it can be shown clearly with numbers. Nuggets comes 4th in offensive rating after Warriors; Cavs and Rockets with 113.9 but in defensive rating, they are 29th with 113.43. This is unacceptable for a team which expected to be in the race for playoffs in Western Conference and to solve it, Millsap’s help will be crucial. His combination of athleticism and power and ability to defend multiple positions, which will provide significant flexibility to the defense of Denver, is likely to increase the team’s dynamism. Millsap listed 14th in Defensive RPM among all players in the league with 3.35 and a quick note, his partner was Dwight Howard a.k.a the guy who finished basketball in his head roughly 4 years ago. It should be underlined that Howard-Jokic transition will be so much valuable for him and in that way, he can contribute to team’s overall game.

Having set a certain offense standard around the Murray-Harris-Jokic trio, Denver has the potential to go one step further with Millsap's involvement. He can score on iso’s, is a very effective roll-man in pick&roll’s (6th in ppp last season), has 3-point weapon (although his stability is debatable) and in addition to those, the biggest plus that he is going to bring to Denver will be his passing ability. Jokic is on a different level in terms of center passing and now with Millsap, one of the best PF’s in the league in terms of court vision, will create a effective inside-outside balance. Nowadays, spacing is a necessity in basketball and Denver has a frontcourt duo who can contribute to this factor.

Sacramento Kings – George Hill:

George Hill had a successful season with Utah Jazz last season and had many clients in this off-season. Rather than Spurs, Nuggets and Lakers; Hill’s next destination will be Sacramento Kings. It can be argued that whether the 3 years-57 MD contract made Hill overpaid or not and whether Kings need Hill or not. However; when it comes to Kings, problems don’t remain as little details, they reach into structural level. At least, it used to be. Since the Cousins trade, Kings has been making right moves and evaluating the Hill addition along with long term goals of Vivek-Divac duo would be reasonable.

Cousins-Kings relationship did not promise anything in the long run for the two sides, and it was very important for Kings to get rid of this burden and look ahead, even though the assets that they got in exchange for him was insufficient. This summer, the Kings made it possible to get rid of the perception of ‘dead team’ and enter the list to be followed. Let’s look at the incomers-outgoing list. Outgoings are Rudy Gay, Langston Galloway, Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison and Anthony Tolliver. Incomers are George Hill, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter, De’Aaron Fox and Bogdan Bogdanovic. If you consider Buddy Hield as a new player also, there is not a second team in NBA to make such a big progress in terms of depth compared to the beginning of last season. It is impossible to know that if it would be a more accurate choice in the long run to pursue an comprehensive tanking like the one that 76’ers did but Kings’ roster can now offer us something.

So, what is George Hill’s role in this team? Briefly; leading the team with being the only good ball distributor and playing a mentor role for young players –especially De’Aaron Fox-. His turnover and usage rates are comparatively low and his responsibility will be big in terms of keeping the Kings in order. It is also likely that he will contribute to team’s defense, his defensive RPM numbers can be considered as proofs. In addition to all these, the table above shows how underrated George Hill is in terms of offensive efficiency. The only question mark for Hill will be injuries, which caused him not playing at all 82 games in any season.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Los Angeles Lakers:

Lakers turned all its focus into the summer of 2018. The plan is offering max contracts to LeBron James and Paul George by clearing the salary cap, and everyone in the NBA knows that. For current roster, there is no untouchable name except Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, D’Angelo’s Brooklyn trade is a proof of that. This season’s aim will be concentrated on Lonzo and Ingram’s development and while doing that, they will try to establish a solid core before LeBron or George’s (maybe both?) possible arrival. Before looking at what can Kentavious Caldwell-Pope do in Lakers, it should be remembered that his contract lasts just for one year. What it means that, in the upcoming off-season KCP will either go to another team or settle down for a contract less than 18 million dollar for a year with the Lakers. Whether the Magic – Pelinka duo will offer a new contract to KCP in 2018 summer will depend on the performance that he is going to show this year.

KCP seems to fill a significant gap in SG, a position where Lakers struggles since Kobe’s prime. With the departure of Lou Williams and Nick Young and Jordan Clarkson’s inability to show a solid performance as a starter (and his numbers substantially go up with the bench unit), participation of KCP will be valuable for the team in the short run. It is a fact that the Lakers acquired the most reliable name in the market to consign SG position but as a matter of fact, pros&cons of his game seems to balance each other. Keeping good aspects of his game in front and hiding bad ones will depend entirely on Luke Walton’s preferences and line-up choices. He is both a good finisher and passer in pick&roll, at this point he can integrate along Lonzo very well and can compensate D’Angelo’s absence in pick&roll positions. Despite playing in a relatively low-tempo like Detroit (22th in pace last season) he is quite effective in transition, which can be valuable in Walton’s system. His court vision is pretty good and that can also be added to pluses list. When we look at the negative sides of his game, shot selection needs to be written first. Inefficency of mid-range shots is now proven by mathematics but he takes this type of uses frequently by coming out in pick&roll’s and hand-off’s. It is possible to link this to Detroit’s system and offensive sets but still, it is obvious that his efficiency lowers when it comes to decision making. In addition to that, his shot percentage around the rim is quite low (0.94 ppp – 14th percentile).

There is also a dilemma about KCP’s defensive performance. From the limited Detroit games I have seen in my past seasons, I regarded him as a very aggressive key defender. However, articles that I read and numbers that I look after Lakers acquisition didn’t support this argument of mine. He completed the last season with -1.31 Defensive RPM and couldn’t reach the 40th percentile in either driving D, isolation D or off screen D. Although there are numerous "defensive highlights" videos of him on Youtube, it is hard to say that you can link this performance with stability. This is also creates a question mark for Lakers, who finished the ’16-‘17 last in terms of defensive rating and needs urgent help at that side of the game. The issue of whether KCP can turn his potential into efficiency will be the key for both Lakers’ season and his own career.

*References for stats:

NBA.com/stats
Basketball-reference.com
NBAMath.com

-Translated from the original Turkish article that published on September 1, 2017.

Referendum Expectations (Based On June 7 Results)

April 16 referendum is on the line and it is possible to read a lot of articles or listen a lot of talks on it. Yes, the number of contents which focus on this upcoming referendum is very high but this doesn't necessarily means ''quantity=quality''. The campaign of ''Yes'' side is filled with lies and populism, both sides have very limited arguments and worthless discussions. When we add up all those things, a process that is hard to tolerate emerges.

If you don't want to deal with those stuff and just want to make a prediction, then only place that you can look up is polls. But polls have recently lost prestige all over the world with the wrong predictions on Brexit and Trump. In particular, the circumstances on polls here in Turkey are even worse. It is a fact that pollsters are not independent and announcing manipulative predictions without even conducting surveys. What it means that, there is no difference between one survey company's ''%58 Yes'' prediction and a regular citizen's saying, ''I think the results end up with %58 No''.

Well, is there anything left to make a prediction? Seems like previous election results are the last and only option. Unchangeable numbers. No ground for speculations. But in this case, following question rises up: does the previous election results present a helpful data for a referendum projection? Answer would be ''No'' for many countries but in Turkey, things are quite different. Political process only works through parties. There are huge limits and restrictions on non-governmental organizations and unions, which actually should be completely independent. Most importantly, most of the citizens that are going to cast their votes, don't have the ability to think freely. With taking all these factors into account, positions of parties will be decisive on this referendum, therefore looking at the previous election results does no harm.

Now, let's start to think about 16 April...The ones who claim that ''No'' is going to win are defending themselves with following arguments: ''I have many friends who voted for AKP in previous elections and they are now saying that they will vote for 'No' '', ''Bahceli has lost his ground in MHP'', ''Saadet is in the No side, so the supporters of National Front will follow them''. I don't know whether they are truly believe these arguments or just console themselves. If their base for these assumptions is the right-wing voters around them, there is a big delusion. It is no different than thinking that protecting the ballot boxes in Cankaya or Kadikoy contributes to the preservation of country's total ballot votes. Furthermore, the ones who defend that claim are actually saying that right-wing voters will be determinative without even realizing it.

What I am saying is that, it is not very wise to make predictions by saying ''If we add up 3 points from here, 5 points from there'' kind of stuff. For a healthier foresight, right thing to do is dividing up the map into pieces. Most beneficial part of doing this is that we will be able to make a rational assumption for tendencies of MHP supporters. If the opposition block of MHP have influence on party's grassroots, a sum of shift is expected from ''Yes'' -which is the position of party rule- to ''No''. The amount of this shift will probably determine the result of referendum.

Estimates on MHP supporters' tendency doomed to be unhealthy as long as they are country-spread. For example, does the prediction of ''%70 of grassroots will vote for 'No' '' take into consideration of the difference between Central Anatolia and coastline? Doubtful. It is much more possible to expect that the supporters of MHP who live in coastline will go for ''No'' but in contrast to that the ones in Central Anatolia will possibly stick with party's official position, Yes. It doesn't anything to do with the current fight between Bahceli and contrarians. The main driving factor for MHP's grassroots in insider regions, which are more likely to vote for AKP as a second option, will be the discussion of ''Who is on the side of Yes or No?'', not the constitutional amendment package. Therefore Erdogan and AKP's approach to keep coming back to this comparison is not a coincidence.

All these things considered, first heavy blow for the ''No'' front arose when we analyze the map by dividing it into pieces. In the rest of the article, I will try to stay optimistic -as a person who is a supporter of No and will vote for No- and use the results of June 7, rather than November 1 as previous data. In the possible estimations of Yes-No, I will always calculate the No with its upper limit. Nevertheless, my final prediction will be a little bit disappointing. Let's get started.

The graphs above show the cities with +100.000 vote for MHP in June 7. With a optimistic and rough estimate, if we take Ankara and Istanbul with %50-50, coastline with %34-66 No and inside regions with %80-%20 Yes, we get 2.403.860 No votes from these 23 cities for June 7. For remaining cities, by splitting the vote share with %60-40 Yes, we get 1.008.994 additional No votes.

For other parties, dividing up to regions method is not necessary. Apart from capitols like Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, cities that they can get vote are very restricted for CHP and HDP and also their supporters' stance in this referendum is quite clear. In AKP, there may be a group that decides to stay out of Erdogan consolidation but its weight is probably low. If we take the vote share among AKP supporters as %90-10 Yes, then we get 1.886.471 No votes from AKP. This number is quite high but as I said before, I'm trying to stay optimistic, therefore I'm moving on. Let's take ''No'' percentages for CHP and HDP, %97 and %93, respectively. If we count on Saadet's position in ''No'' front, total share of No in ''others'' becomes %70. If we take the turnout in foreign votes as %50 (there are rumours that it is high) and share as %50-50, total figures are as follows:

These figures create the following graph, %48.9 Yes - %51.1 No.

Even though we establish maybe the most desirable scenario for No, maximum percentage that we can reach is %51. With a more reasonable perspective, Yes votes rise up to %52-53. We have 2 million new voters since November 1, but these voters will probably split with a direct proportion to parties' vote share, therefore it won't effect the Yes-No balance. The only way for the ''No'' front to survive is an increase in turnout, which was %84  in June 7 and %85 in November 1 and hope that this extra participation will mostly help their side.

I'm not trying to present a disaster scenario here. If ''No'' wins in April 16, it won't be ''stating the obvious'', as a matter of fact, it will be a huge victory for opposing front. That's what I'm trying to tell.

We hope that this country's citizens will not pull the pin of their own lives. What a country.

7 Haziran Sonuçları Üzerinden Referandum Tahminleri

16 Nisan üzerine birçok yazı okumak, birçok tartışma dinlemek mümkün. Referandumla ilgili içerik sayısının bu kadar fazla olması kaliteyi de her zaman yanında getirmiyor elbette. Evet cephesinin komple yalan ve popülizm üzerine kurduğu kampanya, iki cephe için de geçerli olan sınırlı argümanlar ve içi boş konuşmalarla birleşince tahammül etmesi zor bir süreç ortaya çıkıyor.

Bütün bunlardan uzaklaşıp sadece çıkacak sonuç üzerine bir öngörü oluşturmak isteyenlerin başvurduğu adres olan anketler ise sadece Türkiye'de değil dünya genelinde tokat üzerine tokat yedi geçtiğimiz 1-2 yılda. Brexit ve Trump, anket şirketlerinin güvenilirliğini tartışmaya açtı. Türkiye'de ise durum daha vahim. Çoğu şirketin bağımsız olmadığı ve muhtemelen sahaya dahi inmeden manipülatif sonuçlar yayınladığı bir gerçek. Rastgele bir anket şirketinin '%58 evet çıkacak' demesiyle bir vatandaşın kendi küçük çevresinden yola çıkarak %58 hayır çıkacağını iddia etmesi arasında fark yok yani.

Peki bir tahmin yapmak için elimizde ne kaldı? Elbette geçmiş sonuçlar. Değiştirilemez, spekülasyonlardan uzak birebir rakamlar. Bir referandum projeksiyonu için genel seçim sonuçları ne kadar sağlıklı bir ön veri sağlar? Belki çoğu ülke için tutarsız olması mümkün ama Türkiye gibi siyasi yaşamın sadece partiler üzerinden yürüdüğü; sivil toplum kuruluşları ve sendikaların politik sürecin özgür ve aktif bir parçası olması gerekirken iktidar tarafından yaşam alanlarının daraltıldığı ve bundan önemlisi çoğunluğunu bağımsız düşünme yetisinden uzak vatandaşların oluşturduğu bir ülkede partilerin oy miktarları ve açıkladıkları referandum kararları belirleyici olacaktır elbette.

16 Nisan'a gelecek olursak...Hayır çıkacağını savunan isimler tahminlerinin detayını açıklamaları istendiğinde ''AKP'li olan çok tanıdığım var hepsi hayır diyecekmiş'', ''MHP'de Bahçeli'yi dinleyen yok'', ''Saadet hayır diyor, milli görüşçüler onları takip eder'' gibi cümleler sarf ediyorlar. Belki bunlara gerçekten inanıyorlar, belki de kendilerini avutuyorlar, bilemiyorum. Eğer kendi çevrelerindeki sağ seçmenden yola çıkarak çıkarım yapıyorlarsa bu biraz Çankaya'da ya da Kadıköy'de sandıkların başında bekleyip ülke genelindeki oyların korunmasına katkı yaptığını düşünme yanılgısına benziyor. Yine bu cümleleri sarf edenler aslında farkında olarak ya da olmadan belirleyici etkenin sağ seçmen olacağını belirtmiş oluyorlar.

Demem o ki, Türkiye geneli sonuçları ele alıp ''3 puan oradan gelse, 5 puan şuradan gelse'' diyerek tahmin yapmak pek mantıklı değil. Haritayı illere göre parçalayarak incelemek daha tutarlı bir öngörünün kapısını açacaktır. Bu parçalamanın yararı ise bu referandum özelinde MHP seçmeninin genel tutumunu öngörmekte karşımıza çıkacak. Eğer muhalif kanat, taban üzerinde bir ağırlık oluşturabildiyse partinin resmi tutumu olan evetten bir miktar hayıra kayma olacak. Bu kaymanın miktarı da muhtemelen referandumun sonucunu belirleyecek.

MHP'lilerin kararı üzerine yapılan tahminler ''Türkiye geneli'' olduğu sürece tıkanmaya mahkum. Örneğin, 'tabanın %70'si hayır' diyor tahmini; İç Anadolu - kıyılar arasındaki seçmen ağırlığı ve eğilimi farkını içeriyor mu, şüpheli. Kıyılardaki MHP'lilerin hayıra yönelmesi daha muhtemelken, iç bölgelerdeki seçmenden bir kopuş beklemek biraz hayalcilik. Bu durumun partideki Bahçeli - muhalifler kavgasıyla da alakası yok, iç bölgelerdeki AKP'yle geçişkenliği daima yüksek (bkz. 7 Haziran - 1 Kasım) tabanın oy verirken ana gerekçesi anayasa değişikliği paketindeki maddeler değil ''kimler evet diyor, kimler hayır diyor'' olacak. Erdoğan ve AKP'nin de kampanya boyunca bu söylemi ön planda tutması tesadüf değil.

Bu faktörler göz önüne alındığında hayıra inen ilk darbe MHP illere göre parçalanıp incelendiğinde ortaya çıkıyor. Hayır çıkmasını isteyen ve hayır oyu kullanacak biri olarak optimist davranacağım ve bundan sonraki kısımda geçmiş veri olarak 1 Kasım'ı değil, 7 Haziran'ı alacağım. Ortalama evet-hayır tahminlerinde de daima hayırı üst limitten hesaplamaya çalışacağım. Bütün bunlara rağmen en sonda elde edilen rakam ise biraz hayal kırıklığı olacak. Başlayalım.

Yukarıdaki grafikler MHP'nin 7 Haziran'da 100.000'in üzerinde oy aldığı şehirleri gösteriyor. Hayır için iyimser bir kaba hesapla İstanbul ve Ankara'yı %50-%50, kıyıları %34-%66 hayır, iç bölgeleri %80-%20 evet olarak aldığımızda 7 Haziran için bu 23 ilden toplam 2.403.860 hayır oyu geliyor. Geri kalan 58 ildeki oyları da %60-%40 evet olarak dağıtınca da oradan gelen hayır oyu 1.008.094.

Diğer partilerde ise illere göre parçalama metoduna pek gerek yok. CHP ve HDP'nin büyük şehirler hariç oy aldığı yerler zaten sınırlı ve seçmenlerinin duruşu da genel olarak net. AKP'de ise Erdoğan konsolidasyonun dışında kalmayı tercih edecek belli bir grup olsa da ağırlığı muhtemelen düşük. AKP'deki dağılımın %90-%10 olacağını varsaydığımızda 7 Haziran'daki rakamlara göre 1.886.471 AKP'li hayırcı oluyor. Oldukça yüksek bir miktar ve pek de inandırıcı değil. Nitekim iyimseriz ve hayır çıkmasını istiyoruz. O yüzden devam. CHP ve HDP'nin hayır oranlarını da sırasıyla %97 ve %93 alalım. Saadet'in hayır demesine güvenirsek (bana bi' gülme geldi) diğer oylarında hayır %70 civarında oluyor. Yurt dışındaki katılımı %50 (yüksek olduğu yönünde haberler geliyor), oranları da 50-50 olarak aldığımızda karşımıza çıkan tablo şu:

Bu miktarlar toplamda aşağıdaki grafiği oluşturuyor. Yani %48.9 evet - %51.1 hayır.

Hayır için olabilecek en güzel senaryoları kurduğumuzda dahi çıkan oran %51. Daha rasyonel bir bakış açısıyla düşününce evetin oranı %52-53 civarına çıkıyor. Seçmen sayısı 1 Kasım'a oranla 2 milyon artmış ama bu miktar partilerin mevcut oy oranlarıyla orantılı dağılacağı için muhtemelen evet-hayır dengesini bozmayacak. Hayırın ayakta kalması için tek yol 7 Haziran'da %84, 1 Kasım'da %85 olan katılım oranının artması ve bu ekstra katılımın da çoğunlukla hayır odaklı olması.

Burada ''hajum evet çıkacak yeaa'' goygoyu yapmaya çalışmıyorum. Eğer 16 Nisan'da hayır çıkarsa bu bazılarının düşündüğü gibi malumun ilanı olmayacak aksine muhalif cephe için çok büyük bir başarı olacak. Anlatmaya çalıştığım şey bu.

İnsanların kendi yaşamlarının pimini çekmeyeceklerine inanıyoruz, daha doğrusu inanmak istiyoruz. Öyle de bi' ülke işte.